Determinants of innovative development in the regions of Russia: an assessment taking into account time lags and regional heterogeneity

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Received: 28.09.2026 Published: 28.09.2026

UDC: 330.34, 336.6 EDN: RPPIEA

Abstract

Abstract. The study of innovative development processes is central to understanding the directions of economic growth in Russia, however, existing works often do not take into account the endogeneity of factors and the dynamic nature of this process, which leads to biased estimates and ineffective policies. The purpose of this study is to identify andevaluate the impact of factors on the share of high—tech products in the gross regional product, taking into accounttime lags and regional heterogeneity. To solve the research tasks, a two-step assessment was applied within the framework of a dynamic panel model, which allows us to control the unobserved heterogeneity and the problem of endogeneity of variables. An analysis of data on 82 regions of Russia for the period 2014-2023 showed that the keyfactors are characterized by a complex and ambiguous nature over time. The positive effect of R&D costs is manifestedwith a two-year lag, demonstrating nonlinear dynamics. By having a positive impact on innovation output, SEZsenhance the return on investment in research and development only in the first year, while the overall effect over twoyears may be negative. The costs of technological innovations demonstrate a negative effect in the short term, followedby a significant positive return in the long term, which confirms the hypothesis that there is a time lag for theircommercialization. The high return on investment in R&D in resource regions is probably due to the effect of a lowbase and the availability of financial opportunities. The results obtained indicate the manifestation of structural and institutional traps that slow down the commercialization of knowledge. Traditional support measures (direct costfinancing, stimulating staff training) may not achieve their goals without institutional reforms aimed at strengthening the link between science and production, improving the efficiency of innovation process management and creating specialregimes capable of generating sustainable positive effects rather than short-term bursts.

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Статья подготовлена по результатам исследований, выполненных за счет бюджетных средств по государственному заданию Финансового университета при Правительстве Российской Федерации.

How to cite

Для цитирования:

Демидова С.Е. Оценка влияния некоторых инструментов научно-технологической политики на инновационный выпуск в регионах России // Экономика науки. 2026. Т. 12, № 3. С. 28–44.

For citation:

Demidova S. Determinants of innovative development in the regions of Russia: an assessment taking into account time lags and regional heterogeneity // Economics of Science. 2026. Vol. 12, no. 3. P. 28–44.

Коды статьи

  • УДК 330.34, 336.6
  • EDN RPPIEA
  • Тип статьи (РИНЦ) Научная статья (Научная статья)
  • SPIN-код Демидова С. Е.: 4793-3688

How to Cite

Demidova S. Determinants of innovative development in the regions of Russia: an assessment taking into account time lags and regional heterogeneity // Economics of Science. 2026. Vol. 12, no. 3. P. 28–44.

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